So how did it all start?#

Around 2022, clues of a new Half-Life project began appearing in Source 2 code updates and patch notes. The project was referred to as “HLX,” which is most likely a placeholder title—similar to how “HLVR” was eventually revealed as Half-Life: Alyx.

HLX is not Half Life: Xen

Some leakers have claimed that HLX will be titled Half-Life: Xen. However, this isn’t necessarily true. HLX is most likely just a placeholder name that will be replaced with an official title at announcement. And if you follow the lore, a Xen-focused title doesn’t really make much sense anyway.

These findings have been closely monitored by a small group of dataminers and periodically summarized for the public by insiders like Gabe Follower or Tyler McVicker (formerly Valve News Network). Over the next three years, more updates surfaced, gradually revealing potential clues about what HLX might be.

Alongside the technical discoveries, there were also less technical insider rumors that painted a broader picture of the game. By the end of 2024, speculation intensified that a new Half-Life title wasn’t just in development, but nearing the final stage. In 2025, some even claimed the game had already been finished.

And of course, we’ve heard this story many times before.

There have been countless Half-Life rumors over the years—leaks, hype cycles, and false alarms. However, what convinces me this time is the unusually strong evidence: the data exists, Source 2 code explicitly labeled “HLX,” intriguing posts from Mike Shapiro, and even an unexpected prediction from Jason Schreier, one of the most trusted voices in game journalism.

Jason Scheirer

Jason’s 2025 prediction is as follows: Less console exclusives, Ubisoft will irrevocably transform, Grand Theft Auto VI won’t make it, Generative AI will have its Icarus moment, Half-Life will make a return. Although, do note that Jason later clarifies that his prediction is nothing more than that and we shouldn’t take it as an insider information.

I’m convinced a new Half-Life game is coming. We don’t know whether it will be a direct continuation or something else entirely—though the ending of Half-Life: Alyx certainly hints at it—but it is coming.

The real question isn’t if. It’s when.

From this point on, wear your tinfoil hat.#

Coincidentally—or maybe not—Valve has announced that new hardware is coming in 2026: Steam Machine and Steam Frame. Steam Machine, in particular, is essentially a portable PC, closer to a traditional game console in form. Notably, this hardware was also leaked by the same insiders before the official announcement—and those leaks turned out to be accurate.

According to insiders, Valve originally planned to release a new Half-Life game alongside these machines. The idea was straightforward: use a highly anticipated flagship title to boost Steam Machine sales. But Valve didn’t want one announcement to overshadow the other, so timing became critical.

This is where things started to get messy. Multiple internal announcement dates were rumored. Many of them leaked—so many, in fact, that it became confusing. The prevailing theory is that this was intentional, a way for Valve to identify leakers. In the Half-Life 2 documentary, Valve openly discussed how leaks caused friction and demotivation during development. This time, secrecy was clearly a priority.

From what insiders understood, the announcement was supposed to happen before 2025.

The community responded by creating detailed calendars outlining possible announcement windows. Then those windows passed. And nothing happened.

No announcement. Nothing. Nada. Zip. Zilch. Zippo.

The disappointment was massive. Confusion turned into frustration, and frustration slowly became despair. So where is the new Half-Life game? And why make all this noise if it wasn’t coming in the first place?

My take is that the announcement was supposed to happen—within one of those leaked windows. But an unforeseen issue disrupted Valve’s plan.

Remember the bundled release idea? Steam Machine plus Half-Life?

That plan has a major obstacle: rising RAM prices. Recently, RAM prices have surged dramatically, largely driven by AI demand—reportedly reaching around 250% of their October levels. This creates a real headache for Valve, especially since Steam Machine pricing hasn’t been announced yet.

By not announcing price straightaway, Valve clearly wants the hardware to land at a reasonable price point. But with RAM costs skyrocketing—and with manufacturers cutting RAM capacities in phones and laptops—locking in pricing becomes risky. The sensible move is to delay, either until prices stabilize or until the hardware plan can be adjusted.

The unforeseen consequence of this is a delayed Half-Life game.

Valve is likely facing a difficult decision: release the game standalone, or stick to the original plan of launching it alongside Steam Machine. In the worst case, both the hardware and the game could be pushed back. Spring 2026. Summer 2026. Maybe even 2027. We don’t know. What we can expect is that RAM shortages may worsen early next year—and that Valve will likely make a decision once the situation becomes clearer.

At least, that’s what I thought.

What to expect?#

After all the leaked dates passed, we saw immense disappointment from the community, especially on the Half-Life subreddit. It’s a bit silly at times, but it paints the situation very clearly.

The hopium was administered. There was so much hype, with people expecting announcements on specific dates, like during The Game Awards (TGA). When it didn’t happen, the disappointment was pretty immense. However, feeling that way is a bit silly—because if you truly try to understand Valve’s latest position, it doesn’t make sense to announce anything at TGA, or at all, under the current RAM shortage circumstances.

Insiders have been quite silent as well, which is probably a good move. Saying anything now would likely only make things worse.

So here’s what I think is the best approach: don’t wait for it. A new Half-Life game is coming, but don’t expect an announcement anytime soon. Put your hopium into believing that the game exists, and prepare yourself for when it’s finally announced and available on Steam for pre-orders or release.

As for me, I’ll just save some money. And also, maybe we should stop asking when—it would save us some energy.